First Mars Starships

Sounds like things might get delayed a little

Starship Mars 2026 Mission: 41% Chance

Updating Week 3 in the ongoing series tracking odds of at least one uncrewed Starship heading to Mars in the late-2026 (Nov-Dec) transfer window.

The past week was mostly quiet on the Mars front - no big new statements or timeline shifts.

Starship Mars 2026 Mission - Week 2: 45% Chance

Updating Week 2 in the ongoing series tracking odds of at least one uncrewed Starship heading to Mars in the late-2026 (Nov-Dec) transfer window.

Current Chance: 45% (-5)

Adjusted down modestly from the 50% baseline (Elon's

Starship Mars 2026 Mission: 50% Chance ⚖️

Kicking off a new weekly series tracking the realistic odds of SpaceX sending at least one uncrewed Starship to Mars in the late-2026 (Nov-Dec) transfer window.

Week 1 Baseline: 50% Chance
This starts with Elon Musk's most recent

11 months and counting - Elon has described this as a “50/50” chance for the 2026 window, heavily dependent on mastering orbital refueling (requiring multiple tanker launches to fill a Starship in low Earth orbit for the ~6–9 month journey).

Delays in refueling demos or other https://t.co/TzsXXQqqhD